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SAMPLE OF SPORTS INVESTING
If you have what it takes to be emotionless when it comes to the outcome of games and veiw your sports betting not as gambling but as any other investment you have in your portfolio, then you will be amazed at the huge R.O.I.(return on investment) potential that a smart bettor has. Here is the breakdown of the investment...
First off, you must have a bankroll set aside exclusively for betting. This is your investment. Here's the part that shocks most ameteurs...Picking 55% winners over the course of 1000 plays (an average of 3 plays per day for 1 year) will double your money. Hard to beleive? Not only is it true it also protects you against prolonged losing streaks that are common in sports betting. Let me explain.... 55% winners over 1000 plays breaks down as follow...550 wins 450 losses. Add 45 to the losses for the vig and do the math...550-450-45=55 net wins. Since you will be playing over 20 plays per week you don't want to risk more than 2% of your bankroll per game.Let's say your BR is $50,000. That makes you a $1000 per game player. It is IMPERATIVE not to move off of that amount NO MATTER WHAT. That's the size player you chose to be when you made your investment. So after 1000 plays at 55% winners nets you $55,000, more than doubling your investment. See if Meryll Lynch has a mutual fund with that kind of return.
Of course, there is still a risk of losing your bankroll even with this approach. Simply go 50% for 1000 games and you're broke (500 wins - 500 losses - 50 vig = 50 net losses x $1,000 / game =$50,000 loss). Or go 48% over 500 games to be down $46,000 @ $1,000 / game (240-260-26=46 net losses). That's why I must emphasize that it's not as easy as it seems to go 55%-58% over the long haul. The linemaker is extremely accurate in the number he gives the bookmakers. With today's technology it is fairly easy to come up with a "good" number on a game by running recent stats and trends through computers along with injury reports and wheather conditions. All of this same information used to make the line is readily available to everyone online. That's why, as mentioned earlier, we're not conventional handicappers. By toiling over stats and trends you're just rehashing the linemakers work. He already used the same info to make the line that the average bettor uses to pick games. Sorry, but the average joe is not going to beat the linemaker over the long haul.
Money Management...(SAMPLE)
Money management is something often overlooked and also something that is vital in being successful at sports betting. In fact there are many good handicappers that can pick games at a high rate of return but they fail to actually pocket anything because they don't have clear program to do so. I am going to attempt to sway those of you that are floundering with this most important part of sports wagering.
BANKROLL One must have a clearly defined bankroll. A good bankroll is defined as the amount that you have allocated and set aside toward your wagering and not just what you might have in an online book at this very moment. It should be an amount that you can comfortably lose without putting yourself in a bind or changing your lifestyle in a dramatic way. For the sake of this example I am going to pick a bankroll of $5000. Yours might be higher and yours might be lower.
BANKROLL UNIT BET A bankroll unit bet is simply the amount of money you would wager per bet based on a percentage of your total bankroll. I recommend 1.5% per Unit based on my plays but on average my usual play would be 2 Units or 3%. I will also use that for this exercise. By limiting your average bet size to just 3%, you are in a position to weather any storms that will come your way. Your bankroll is going to flucuate much like the S%P on Wall Street. But the goal is to always see your money make an increase over a period time much like a quality stock will do. My Money Management Plan allows you to do that and also allows you to increase your wagers at safe intervals.
THE PLAN The Plan is a very simple one. Start will 3% wagers and increase your wagers as your bankroll increases, but do it at safe 20% intervals. This will allow you to get well over and beyond any real possibility of going back to the previous level but will also increase your chances of pocketing more money as your funds grow. I had hoped to build a chart and I will but for now I am just getting the info up as I feel it is very important. Take note that because I am using 3% Bankroll Plays as an example, it would take 6.67 Units won (3% X 6.67 = 20%) to reach the next level. That works out to be about 1.55 Units per week if you set a goal of moving up each level monthly. (1.55 X 4.3 weeks) It is important to note that once you reach a level, you should keep your wagers at that level until you reach the next one, either up or down. Now, for the fun part. Let's see what results would be based on these facts....
BANKROLL UNIT BET UNITS WON $5,000 150 6.67 $6,000 180 13.34 $7,200 220 20.01 $8,600 260 26.68 $10,300 310 33.35 $12,300 370 40.02 $14,700 440 46.69 $17,600 530 53.36 $21,100 630 60.03 $25,200 760 66.70 $30,200 900 73.37 $36,300 1090 80.04
RESULTS As you can see, by winning 6.67 Units per month, in one year, your bankroll would increase from just $5000 to over $36,000, yet your overall risk would remain the same, just 3% per wager. By increasing your wagers at pre-determined points and keeping your wagers at a basically even keel, you will be more successful than you have ever been before. Of course, at some point you will want to stop increasing your wagers as you reach your own comfort level. That is when the real fun begins as you start dragging your money of your accounts. At this point, all you need to do is to make sure you are getting good advice on what to bet or have a plan yourself to accomplish that same goal. I have certainly reached my comfort level and you will too if you follow this program. I hope that you choose to do so. |
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